The Economic Math Behind Childbearing

It’s actually a straightforward economic calculation, but some people have chosen to turn a blind eye.

When family-planning policies were introduced, productive capacity was insufficient, so the ability to support children was a key consideration. However, subsequent distribution policies allocated resources by head of household—whether voting rights or land (farmland, homesteads, and the like). Those were the core means of production at the time, and people were even allowed to reclaim wasteland and keep it, keeping income inequality extremely low. Adding one more pair of chopsticks to the table also meant adding labor power and returns that were plainly visible, so despite the strict enforcement of family planning, many still had multiple children.

Things are different now. Income sources are limited and the ceiling is obvious. Most people earn low wages, jobs are hard to find, and bringing up one additional child costs several hundred thousand—or even over a million—yuan in betrothal gifts, housing and car loans, and child-rearing and education expenses, rather than yielding productive returns.

Admittedly, the best demographic to attract is consumers, but with high input and low return, it’s no surprise fertility intentions remain weak.