案例研究：操控预期

Zigong, a disciple of Confucius, was very wealthy. When he saved someone, he refused any reward, and everyone praised him for his generosity. But Confucius was angry and harshly criticized Zigong. In contrast, another disciple, Zilu, also saved someone but accepted a cow as a gift from the person he rescued—and Confucius was delighted, going around praising Zilu.

Why?

Because if Zigong’s selfless reputation spread widely, no one else would want to rescue people anymore. On the other hand, if Zilu’s story spread, it would encourage others to do good.

So if you’re the first, what you want to do doesn’t matter—what you should do matters more.

Consider a company: if you’re the CEO and you drive a $200,000 car, what kind of car do you expect your subordinates to drive? This isn’t about personal preference—it’s that your behavior as one person sets the tone for everyone’s consumption patterns in the company.

Take a manager below you. Even if he can afford and wants to buy a $500,000 car, he has to suppress that desire simply because the leader set the standard.

If you were the CEO of an automobile company and saw this chain reaction, wouldn’t you be devastated? If you were a salesperson at that company, you might lose your job. If you were a fresh graduate entering the auto industry, you might struggle to find work at all.

This isn’t a matter of whether you want it or not—by now, a whole distribution system has formed around you. Before someone becomes successful, they must understand that they can’t just do whatever they want; after they become successful, they must understand that they can’t just stop doing whatever they no longer want to do.

Being a celebrity isn’t something you can choose to do casually, and once you’re one, you can’t simply quit. The web of interests around you is already in place—what happens to those who bet on you early, those who joined your side, and all the chain reactions that follow?