The art of painting pies in steps

No one will invest in you as a protégé out of the blue. They do it because you've proven yourself excellent, and that earns you an initial opportunity. If you perform well, they may consider giving you a slightly bigger one.

This process is just like upgrading your credit card. A bank won't hand you a $1 million limit on the spot. The credit limit they offer adjusts as you continuously prove yourself. Much like a promotion or raise, demonstrating you have solid assets, or maintaining a long record of excellent repayment before they consider increasing your limit.

The mistake many of us make is failing to realize that building credit takes time.

Sanada Yukimura's tragedy was that history never gave him the time to build his credit.

In 1611, Japan's famed general Sanada Masayuki—once exiled by Tokugawa Ieyasu for over a decade—passed away. Before dying, he shared a plan with his youngest son, Sanada Yukimura, who had been exiled and imprisoned alongside him.

He said, "Just wait and see. Tokugawa Ieyasu, who usurped the Toyotomi clan's territory, is nearly 70. He will likely eliminate the Toyotomi heir before he dies to secure his lineage. When the Toyotomi are forced to rebel, we exiled ronin will finally have our chance. Here's the strategy: persuade the Toyotomi to send two armies—one to Owari to intercept and harass Ieyasu's forces, tiring them out as they march from Edo; the other to seize Kyoto and secure an imperial edict declaring Ieyasu a traitor. In a year or so, western daimyo like the Mōri and Shimazu will waver. Seeing Ieyasu's age, they'll wonder what happens when he dies and whether the Tokugawa can remain stable. This could fracture Japan into east-west rivalries, and my Sanada clan would claim great merit." His son thought the plan brilliant.

But Masayuki sighed and said, "Unfortunately, time is not on our side." Sanada Masayuki was already in his sixties and couldn't outlast Tokugawa Ieyasu, passing away in 1611. His dying words were: "If only I could live to see the day war breaks out between the Toyotomi and Tokugawa. With my reputation for winning against odds twice before, the Toyotomi mother and child would surely appoint me commander-in-chief. All the ronin samurai in the Toyotomi camp would follow my orders, and great things could be achieved."

His son Yukimura inherited his father's talents but had never commanded troops. In his forties, he hadn't even experienced his first battle. Even if he brought this perfect strategy to the Toyotomi, the mother and child wouldn't trust him, and the samurai below wouldn't follow his commands.说完就撒手人寰了。

Three years later, in 1614, exactly as Sanada Masayuki predicted, war broke out between the Toyotomi and Tokugawa. Ten thousand ronin samurai gathered in Osaka Castle. Yukimura presented his father's battle plan, but it was rejected. His attempt to secure the commander position also failed.

When did Yukimura finally gain prestige? It was when he built the fortified "Sanada-maru" defenses outside Osaka Castle, defeating overwhelming odds and killing over 10,000 Tokugawa soldiers with just a few thousand men. His fame exploded. Yet, even then, he could only command a fraction of the Toyotomi forces. Later, disregarding his advice, the Toyotomi mother and child dismantled the defenses and negotiated peace with Tokugawa. But Ieyasu violated the treaty and returned with over 100,000 troops. Only when defeat seemed inevitable did Yukimura finally receive command of half the army. He wanted to gamble on a decapitation strike against Ieyasu, but unfortunately, the troops under him didn't follow orders and launched premature attacks, disrupting his deployment.

In the end, Sanada Yukimura led a few thousand loyal samurai, clad in red armor and bearing the Sanada family crest, charging straight into Ieyasu's main camp. Alas, Ieyasu escaped, and the mission failed.

History unfolded exactly as Masayuki foresaw. Our first reaction when viewing this chapter is often to lament: "The Toyotomi deserved their fate. If only they'd listened to Yukimura earlier and handed him all resources, they wouldn't have perished as a clan."

But anyone who's been a boss or an investor knows this is impossible. In 1614, what was Sanada Yukimura? He was a fresh graduate—a 48-year-old fresh graduate with zero battle experience. You might know he became the best fighting general alive in Japan months later, but how could you have known at the start? The moment Yukimura entered Osaka Castle in 1614, his credibility was probably lower than the empty promises of 2009, where 10,000 coins couldn't even buy a single pizza.

Why should they trust you? What's your track record?

Even a genius like Zhuge Liang faced this. Historically, Zhuge Liang's Northern Expeditions were most likely to succeed when Shu's veteran generals were still alive, but he had no authority to command them. By the time he had full control after pacifying Meng Huo seven times, there was no capable talent left to use.

Why do some people with brilliant ideas—proven correct in hindsight—find that bosses won't believe them or provide resources; parents won't fund them; wives won't support them?

It's called common sense. Everyone goes through this. Investors give you a chance because you're excellent; if you perform well, they may give you a bigger opportunity.

You want to prove yourself? Start a business? Your parents lend you $10,000—prove it. Right now, that's all you're worth, even as their own child. If you weren't their child, that $10,000 wouldn't be given freely either.

Drawing a big pie requires prior acceptance, which depends on having delivered on smaller promises years earlier. A ten-year plan needs ten years to execute. No amount of vision compensates for unestablished credit.

Isn't that how scams work too?