Many people are not inherently foolish; they simply never get the chance to show it.

People go through several rounds of trying, and some find a way out, while others realize they're simply not cut out for it.

When I'm at my limit, even if you give me a ladder, I can't climb it—because I'm essentially in a wheelchair. How am I supposed to climb? That's called self-awareness.

Dong Zhuo announced he wanted to depose the young emperor and install the Prince of Chenliu instead. How did his advisor Li Ru convince him? He started with excessive flattery, fully affirming Dong Zhuo's intentions.

"My lord, this move of yours has two benefits and one drawback."

"In ancient times, Yi Yin and Huo Guang both carried out regnal changes, and both became legendary ministers and heroes of their era. If you follow their example, your name will surely endure through history—this is benefit one. You earned merit by rescuing the court and your authority already looms large over the officials. Installing a new ruler would let you command the court in the emperor's name, paving the way toward controlling the realm—this is benefit two."

He tells the other person: if you proceed as planned and win, the rewards multiply. He heaps praise on them first, then presents his opposition.

Li Ru continued: "Since the reigns of Emperors Zhang and He, those who held great power—ranging from the distant examples of Dou Xian and Chen Fan to the more recent He Jin—all met violent and sudden deaths. While installing a new emperor may grant you overwhelming influence and prestige in your time, it also makes you a target for all criticism. This is the one drawback. Think carefully, deliberate wisely."

What does this mean? It means: if you attempt a coup, you either double your gains or lose everything. And based on backtested data, apart from remote, almost mythical cases like Yi Yin, nobody in recent history survived it.

Think it over. How did Dong Zhuo reply? He was overjoyed. Two benefits outweigh one drawback—the ratio is 2:1. Let's do it...

If you win, you gain 100%. But if you lose, you lose at most 50%. Because after losing half, you need to double your remaining amount just to break even. That's only a draw. If you aim for a 100% gain, your losses must stay below 50%. But what Dong Zhuo is planning—if it fails, he loses everything. That means no matter how infinitely large the potential profit, the deal is still terrible.

That's why Li Ru told him to think carefully and deliberate wisely. But could Dong Zhuo even understand that? He couldn't.