Five Mathematical Theories
The first one is the Law of Large Numbers.
Did Song Jiang only start his grifting process when he met the clown Li Kui? No. I wrote it clearly the other day: he treated everyone this way. The way he handled Li Kui was exactly the same as how he’d handled Wu Song before. His PUA of Zhai Zong was identical to his earlier PUA of Chai Jin. What was he doing? He was running a standardized workflow. Think about those Southeast Asian telemarketing call centers. Do you think they’re targeting you personally? No. In their eyes, there is no “you.” There is only the process. Make a thousand calls, and 998 will hang up immediately. They don’t know in advance who’ll answer and who’ll hang up—and it doesn’t matter. They just follow the script, and eventually, someone picks up. That’s the Law of Large Numbers.
You just need to know the process, go through the process, keep going through the process. Silently execute the flow, and someone will inevitably fall for it.
Before Song Jiang successfully PUA’d Chai Jin and Zhai Zong, he may have tried the exact same approach on twenty other people and failed every time—the novel simply doesn’t show you those failures. Before he moved Wu Song and convinced Li Kui, he likely tried the same routine on twenty others and failed—again, the novel leaves those out. Of course, the novel does occasionally give us glimpses: Zhang Wen-yuan took Song Jiang’s silver, did the job Song Jiang recommended, and still stole Song Jiang’s woman. That’s a failure case.
The second principle is Bayes’ Theorem.
The so-called Bayesian law is straightforward: adjust your投入筹码 (betting chips) based on market feedback.
Song Jiang is like those Southeast Asian syndicates—they run a standardized process. Whether it’s Tang Niu’er or Zhang Wen-yuan, Wu Song or Li Kui, the first round is always the baseline operation. And then what? Based on the other person’s reaction, he decides whether to escalate or invest further.
Zhang Wen-yuan betrayed him, so he cuts his losses. Wu Song matured and no longer falls for such low-level manipulation, so he stops grifting him. That’s Bayes’ Theorem.
Look at those Southeast Asian groups—they all operate the same way. If they can keep fooling someone, they expand the win; otherwise, they hang up.
The third principle is Independent Events.
Those Southeast Asian groups understand perfectly well that just because Zhang San didn’t take the bait doesn’t mean Li Si won’t. Zhang San and Li Si are independent events.
So after ninety-nine rejections in a row, their mood isn’t affected—they don’t carry failure emotions.
Just because Zhang Wen-yuan didn’t fall for it doesn’t mean Tang Niu’er won’t. Just because Wu Song came to his senses doesn’t mean Li Kui will.
As long as Song Jiang keeps following the process, success is guaranteed—it’s ensured by the Law of Large Numbers.
The fourth principle is the Risk-Reward Ratio.
Fishing isn’t magical. As long as the fish is bigger than the bait, it’s worth it. How much do you win if you gamble right? How much do you lose if you gamble wrong?
If the reward for winning is at least three times the loss from losing, then go ahead and play.
Song Jiang lost 50 taels of silver to the county magistrate right off the bat because he knew the return he’d eventually get from Chao Gai would far exceed 50 taels. In fact, it was 100 taels of gold—a 20-to-1 risk-reward ratio.
The final principle is the Safety Net.
Nothing in this world is truly zero-risk. A mature person won’t wager everything they have.
They might enter the game with two dollars and win their entire fortune with those two dollars—but they won’t keep putting their entire fortune back into the game forever.
They only risk what’s irrelevant to their daily life, keep winning, add icing on the cake, and if they ever lose it all, they’ll travel the world and enjoy life.
Because they’ve set aside enough to last several lifetimes—money they will never risk again. That’s the safety net.
Song Jiang had already dug out a secret cellar at home and drafted a document severing ties with his father long ago. This shows he had it all planned out—he arranged his escape route while he was still on top.