What do China’s population trends indicate?
In 2022, China's population entered negative growth for the first time, meaning deaths exceeded births. Births are projected to fall below 8 million in 2023. In other words, if this birth rate persists, the cohort of marriage-age people five years out will number only 40 million—meaning at most 20 million newly married households. There simply won't be enough people to take over the real estate market. Additionally, starting in 2023, the sharp drop in births will first hit kindergartens, which will begin closing; school closures will then spread to primary schools, middle schools, high schools, and universities.
The total numbers of men and women are nearly 1:1, but the age structure is skewed (specific figures are not yet available). Over the past 30 years, the rural population has fallen from 640 million to 490 million—meaning roughly 150 million people have moved up the social ladder in that time.
According to the sex ratio at birth, before 2016 males accounted for about 15% more newborns than females; after 2016 the ratio has shifted to nearly 1:1, making it more balanced. In other words, dating prospects will be more balanced for people ten years from now, while those born before 2016 will face demographic imbalances that make finding a partner harder.