What Happened to China’s Economy in 2023?

》What Happened to China's Economy in 2022?

Here’s a summary of the uncertain information:

Current Employment Carriers:

1. State-sector employment supports nearly 100 million people (nearly 100 million Party members).

2. Infrastructure projects support 90 million migrant workers (officially recorded at 87 million).

3. Domestic-demand-driven employment includes Meituan food delivery riders (6.2 million), Didi ride-hailing drivers (19 million), insurance agents (5.7 million), and express delivery workers (4.7 million)—totaling approximately 50 million across these and similar sectors.

4. Other employment is mainly shouldered by private enterprises, foreign-invested companies, and large manufacturing firms.

Current Main Employment Issues:

1. Nearly 10 million college graduates enter the job market each year.

2. Manufacturing offshoring and trade sanctions (reliance on US exports) have caused imbalances in 【other employment】 sectors.

3. As key cities complete their infrastructure projects, migrant workers are being phased out, bringing their employment challenges into sharp focus.

4. Layoffs and falling income expectations have reduced consumer willingness, putting pressure on domestic-demand-driven employment as well.

Main Directions Forward:

1. Expand Domestic Demand

Expanding domestic demand primarily relies on derivative consumption driven by newborns, so policies will encourage higher birth rates to sustain domestic-demand employment.

2. Create New Infrastructure Markets

With 490 million rural residents still remaining—meaning hundreds of millions could eventually move to cities and buy homes—the focus will be on county-level economic development centered on counties and covering surrounding rural areas, solving infrastructure-related employment; infrastructure capabilities can also be exported overseas.

The key challenge is how to encourage farmers to move into cities.

3. Build a Unified National Market

Put aside the current confrontation in overseas trade, restart the Silk Road initiative to create a Eurasian common market, and strategically invest in the development of central and western regions, reshaping manufacturing around key industries.

4. Optimize the Business and Entrepreneurial Environment

Encourage private enterprises to drive employment.

5. Lower Deposit Returns

Saving money will become less attractive. To prevent capital outflows and encourage spending or investment, people need to take their money out—either to consume (creating jobs) or to invest (creating jobs).

On this foundation, the goal is to replicate and surpass the US model of [extracting global wealth to sustain domestic economic development].

1. Expand agricultural competition while ensuring food security.

Promote land consolidation (transforming scattered plots into larger units) and agricultural mechanization.

2. Reduce energy dependence and accelerate the transition to new energy sources.