Having the Right Expectations for the Future

What kind of expectations does someone who started their career in 2004 have for the future?
It's simple: looking back, GDP growth has basically stayed around 10% year after year. So from that person's perspective in 2004, projecting their entire career over the next 30 years, the math is 1.1 to the 30th power — 17.45x.
What about someone starting out in 2024 and projecting the next 30 years? On the optimistic side: 5% mid-range growth for 10 years, 4% mid-range growth for another 10, and 3% slower growth for the final 10 years — totaling 30 years.
1.05 to the 10th power is 1.63, 1.04 to the 10th power is 1.48,
1.03 to the 10th power is 1.34. Multiplying those three numbers together gives
3.23x.
17.45 is 5.4 times 3.23.

That's the difference in macro context.

If the former expects to earn purchasing power worth ¥5.4 million, then sorry — the latter can only expect ¥1 million in purchasing power.
People starting in 2024 need to lower their expectations to roughly 1/5.4 of the prior baseline. That's the realistic, grounded expectation going forward.

The top scorer doesn't need to adjust, since they'll be first no matter what. But ordinary people must calibrate their expectations correctly: you can put in a lot of effort, yet still only capture 1/5.4 of what was previously possible. The same strategies and tactics simply won't work anymore — a hundred-meter sprint and a marathon require entirely different approaches.

When the era changes, you have to adapt to it — recalibrate your expectations and adjust your strategy accordingly.