When Everyone Knows, the Ending is Usually Different

When everything is already known, what does it mean? It means there’s no incremental opportunity. Fundamentally, it’s just a game about how many people will play it.

Only by seeing the structure can you make a plan. Look at trends in population, revenue, and industry—are they increasing or decreasing? What’s the growth rate? Structure means understanding the proportion of different demographics. This is what “seeing the future” looks like. Before doing anything, first ask: What will it look like in ten years? Twenty years from now? Consider the entire industry and the broader context it operates within.

It’s essential to understand exactly what this game rewards. Only then can you possibly get returns.