He thought he was trading, but actually he was buying a lottery ticket.
You go ask a few retail investors, ask them about their trading records. All their trading history — what's the risk of each individual trade, the profitability of each trade, your fixed cycle like one year, the total transaction cost in that year, the total profitability in that year. Most people are completely clueless, they have no idea why they should look at this.
Even if you force their heads down to calculate and tabulate, they'll still see a bunch of scattered, disorganized data. You'll find their individual trade risk is inconsistent, their individual trade profitability is wildly fluctuating.
What does this indicate?
It shows they don't have a trading system, they're not following any particular pattern or model. They're trading on emotion — their own emotions. They open positions when they feel like it, hold when they want to, close when they choose, go heavy when they desire, go light when they prefer. Their trading lacks continuity entirely. You pull out their trade list, calculate it, and it's plainly obvious dice-rolling behavior. They think they're working hard, but really they're all effort in vain.
Most retail investors aren't pursuing profit — they're pursuing the thrill of gambling itself, that excitement that often exceeds expectations, or the high, or the pain. Whether they win or lose, they can't stop, because they're chasing emotions. They're just watching the show, finding it entertaining.
