Will the environment improve in 2024?
Our structural problems.
The corporate structure itself: non-private enterprises are mostly in essential needs sectors, while private enterprises generally operate in non-essential sectors.
The income structure is such that 80% of deposits are held by 2% of people, while the other 98% only have 20% of total deposits.
When water, electricity, gas, subway, and high-speed rail prices increase, who ultimately receives those profits? These are non-private enterprises. And where do the losses from reduced consumption end up? Most likely, they hurt private enterprises.
For the 98%, after price hikes for water, electricity, gas, subway, and high-speed rail, would they be more or less willing to spend money? Most likely, less willing. The extra money they are forced to spend on these essentials will be offset by主动 reductions in other areas. When this 98% faces higher mandatory spending in essential sectors, they naturally choose to cut back on non-essential spending.
This gives rise to another structural issue: employment. More than 80% of jobs are created by private enterprises.
Given the current push to raise infrastructure prices, companies employing 80% of the workforce will find it harder to make money. So, will things get better in the future?
There are still hundreds of millions of people in China earning below $1,000.
The core issue is simple: when it comes to consumption, you can't bypass that 2%. It's not complicated — the money is in their hands. The problem is that this 2% hasn't become long-term stable investors.
How to guide them is crucial.